Editorial

An Uncertain Future

Getting tough is a policy argument, not a posture. They are determined to introduce market-driven ‘reforms’ even by risking electoral fortunes in the next general election, just a year away. Wage-earners are feeling the pinch and indications are that they have hard days ahead. All their expectations of a soft budget in view of the forth-coming election in early 2014 are likely to prove illusory. Politicians of the ruling Congress and Opposition parties don’t differ in their approach to economic management. The current status of the Indian economy needs both Congress and Opposition fully engaged. It is next to impossible for them to change the rules of the game in the middle. And they are not really moving in that direction.

While the left makes some customary noises, the right remains busy to divert public attention to areas other than market-mayhem. Price-rise these days is as normal as anything else. So is inflation-induced erosion in real wages. These days they frequently resort to administered price-hike to avoid embarrassment in parliament. So the rail fares were hiked well before the presentation of the next rail budget. Quite expectedly the corporate India welcomed the move which they think, was long overdue. As they cannot deal with mounting unemployment, under-employment and real wage problem, it is very convenient to blame someone else, like Pakistan, for all the evils under the sun.

In truth Pakistan is getting focused once again because of its alleged violation of the ceasefire agreement of 2003 and killing of two Indian soldiers on Indian soil near the Line of Control [LoC] in Jammu and Kashmir. The way they beheaded Indian soldiers borders on Talibani barbarity. Pakistan’s allegation of Indian retaliation was quickly denied by New Delhi though Indian side didn’t deny the fact that it was a ‘‘controlled response’’ to ‘‘unprovoked’’ firing by the otherside. The dead on both sides of the LoC provide a familiar scenario of diplomacy moving in a circle in the sub-continent. And as usual Pakistan lost no time to internationalise the issue by way of demanding a UN probe into firing incidents which, India, again in expected line, refused to oblige. For one thing Pakistan has already approached the UN to probe an alleged killing of a Pakistani soldier by Indian troops. The real casualty : the fragile peace-process that starts all the time afresh.

India and Pakistan cannot live in peace as Afghans have forgotten to say ‘no’ to war. Whenever official peace initiatives by both sides take off for the better some irritants are being engineered allegedly by vested interests, to derail the peace process. Unlike India Pakistan’s business industrial complex is basically controlled by the all powerful military. It is not in the best interest of the military to improve bilateral trade relations. They are more interested in trading charges under one pretext or another. Popular perception in India’s political circles is that terrorists, rather jihadists, and their men in military and government do everything possible to arrest the much talked about peace negotiations going. Maybe, there are grains of truth in this allegation. And it’s no secret that these jihadist groups operating in Indian Kashmir are the proxies of Pakistan military and the Pakistan authorities won’t dismantle these extra-legal structures, no matter what they tell the world in the contrary. Global political situation has changed drastically over the years and because of these changes the sub-continentals cannot go to a full-fledged war. So terrorism is the only weapon for Pakistani rulers to detabilise India and keep the Kashmir issue burning.

Once bitten twice shy, America is now reaping the bitter harvest of its own creation—Taliban. The same is true of Pakistan. Pakistani Taliban apart, a number of terrorist outfits are now challenging the Pakistani authority. Not a single day passes without violence targeted against government and military installations. Also, sectarian violence that now rocks Pakistan quite often, is no less agonising. Violence begets violence. And Pakistan has no escape from this circle of violence.

The very survival of Pakistan depends on India being continually projected as an enemy. The legacy of Pakistan continues to haunt three generations and it will continue to disturb the polity in the region for years to come. For the rulers of India and Pakistan the enemy perception serves as a good public diversion and a rallying point for ‘patriots’ at a time of domestic crisis. In the end the sparring over ‘peace diplomacy’ seems to have little impact on the people in both countries.

Time is not the best healer when it is the question of border disputes. And India cannot resolve the boundary question, if other sides are China and Pakistan. Nobody is willing to compromise on an inch in the disputed territory.

The Chinese, however, are wise enough, to allow negotiations on the boundary rolling while religious bigots in Pakistan cannot jeopardise their survival by burying the age-old enemy next door myth. Punjabi domination in Pakistan’s economic and political life gave birth to Bangladesh and it may lead to further break-up as recent developments in Baluchistan have ominous signals for the Islamabad elite. If thins go in this fashion for long one day Pakistan will be reduced to Punjab Inc.

Frontier
Vol. 45, No. 28, January 20-26, 2013

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